Background

91¸£ÀûÉç

Approximately 10 percent of adults in the United States lack a high school diploma, which limits their access to stable employment and post-secondary training. HSE credentials are intended to alleviate this issue, yet college completion rates among HSE recipients remain low. At the same time, employers continue to value traditional high school diplomas over HSE credentials, and the public adult education programs that help two-in-five GED testers prepare for the test have experienced substantial enrollment declines over the past two decades.

Modern GED graduates enroll in college at rates similar to earlier cohorts but are more likely to persist and complete degrees. Today, higher-scoring GED testers—those earning GED College Ready (CR) or GED College Ready + Credit (CR+C) designations—perform as well as, or better than, typical community college entrants. Motivation also matters: individuals who report taking the GED test to advance their education enroll and complete college at higher rates than peers with similar test scores.

However, causal analyses reveal important limits. Barely passing the GED test or narrowly earning a CR designation does not increase college enrollment, persistence, or completion. Modest impacts appear only for CR+C scores in some subjects, primarily affecting enrollment and early persistence rather than degree completion. These findings suggest that HSE credentials signal existing readiness and motivation, rather than acting as independent catalysts for postsecondary success.

The growing role of HSE credentials as an onramp to postsecondary training stands in tension with broader trends in the adult education. Enrollment in federally funded public adult education classes has fallen by over 60% during the 21st century. The largest declines were in the adult basic education and adult secondary education classes, where over 40% of GED testers prepare

for the test. Evidence suggests that the contraction in public adult education is primarily explained by supply-side constraints, driven by rising costs and declining public support for this increasingly immigrant-serving sector of public education.

As the number of adults without high school diplomas has fallen, relative demand for adult education has shifted toward English as a Second Language (ESL) classes due to growth in the adult population that has limited English proficiency, yet both types of programs have seen absolute enrollment declines since 2000. At the same time, per-pupil costs have risen, driven in part by high administrator-to-student ratios. Survey evidence suggests that public support for adult education funding is lower when programs are perceived as primarily serving immigrants rather than U.S. citizens. Taken together, these findings point to a central policy tension: HSE credentials’ role as a gateway to further training is growing—a larger share of HSE recipients are using their credential to get to and through college than ever before—yet public investment to support this kind of upskilling is waning.

Policy Recommendations

91¸£ÀûÉç

• HSE attainment should be treated as the beginning of a pathway, not as an endpoint. States should embed college application assistance, advising, and bridge programs within adult education and HSE test preparation.
• GED CR and CR+C scores can be leveraged to waive placement exams, streamline entry into credit-bearing coursework, and identify students who need more intensive academic and advising supports.
• Theory suggests that even short-term college enrollment may improve educational and labor-market outcomes for GED graduates. States can expand first-term tuition assistance, certification programs, and dual enrollment options for newly credentialed adults.
• Policymakers should examine administrative cost structures to reduce rising per-pupil expenditures in adult education and frame adult education investments around workforce development and economic mobility for all learners.

Conclusion

91¸£ÀûÉç

HSE credentials remain an essential second-chance pathway, but credentials alone do not produce opportunity. Policies that connect HSE credential attainment to postsecondary enrollment, advising, and early academic momentum are more likely to yield lasting gains. For state education leaders, the evidence supports a shift from credentialing toward pathway-building as the core goal of modern HSE systems.

This brief is based on a manuscripts published as: Heller, Blake H. (2025). High School Equivalency Credentialing and Post-Secondary Success: Pre-Registered Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the GED® Test. (EdWorkingPaper: 25-1240). Retrieved from Annenberg Institute at Brown University: https://doi.org/10.26300/nw9y-a303 and Heller, Blake H., and Kirsten Slungaard Mumma. (2024). What happened to adult education in the United States?. (EdWorkingPaper: 24-1101). Retrieved from Annenberg Institute at Brown University: https://doi.org/10.26300/k1n3-e371